EU tobacco law evaluation jeopardises 2040 smoke-free goal by sidelining crucial evidence

The European Union risks missing its 2040 smoke-free goal if it lets political decisions inform evidence, British American Tobacco (BAT) said today in response to the publication of the European Commission’s evaluation report on the current EU tobacco and nicotine legislation.

The Commission's report, published today, reveals that the draft report received a negative opinion from the Commission’s own Regulatory Scrutiny Board late last year. The report acknowledges that it couldn't make a clear distinction between the contributions of specific policy measures, and admits to making no effort to assess the impact of ‘external factors’, like consumer preferences or the availability of smokeless alternatives, on smoking rates.

According to the Commission’s own Better Regulation guidelines, these evaluations should follow a rigorous evidence-based process in which “evidence informs political decisions – not the other way around.” Yet after four years of work, the process appears to have strayed far from that standard, departing from the transparent, inclusive and evidence-led approach the Commission repeatedly promised.

BAT’s six key concerns with the Evaluation Report

1. A biased evaluation process. Stakeholder consultation has prioritised opinion over evidence and ignored the interests of adult nicotine consumers, rural communities, SMEs, business organisations and even members of the European Parliament. Meanwhile, a Bloomberg-funded NGO syndicate ideologically opposed to nicotine use was awarded a €3M contract by DG SANTE to support the review. The Commission claims that the evaluation report is backed by a ‘broad and diverse’ set of evidence, even though the NGO study is not publicly available or open to scrutiny.
2. Bans don’t work. Across the EU, bans and heavy restrictions on smokeless products don’t eliminate demand. Instead, they push consumers to illegal markets with no age checks, safety standards or tax revenues. In the Netherlands, underage vaping rose 15% between 2023 and 2025 after a flavoured vapour ban¹. The Frauenhofer Institute estimates that around 50% of the EU vapour market is now illegal or non-compliant². 
3. The Commission is not serious about science. DG SANTE relies on incomplete evidence, fails to assess smokeless products properly against cigarettes, and repeats claims widely rejected by scientists. The report calls vaping a gateway to smoking, despite strong evidence that record numbers of adult smokers have switched to vapour products.
4. Selective evidence and predetermined conclusions: The report references Eurobarometer data on adult smokers switching to smokeless products, yet fails to include these products among the listed reasons of a change in behaviour. This internal inconsistency points to a selective use of evidence, with data being highlighted or omitted in a way that supports a predetermined narrative.
5. The Commission’s own watchdog has rejected the evaluation. The European Commission’s oversight body, the Regulatory Scrutiny Board, issued a negative opinion on the evaluation – a signal that it does not meet basic Better Regulation standards. Despite attempts to address the shortcomings identified by the Board, key factors impacting smoking rates, such as consumer preferences and the availability of alternative nicotine products, remain unaddressed. As a result, the evaluation cannot credibly underpin far-reaching new regulation without substantial correction.
6. A big question remains unanswered: Are the problems caused by countries not applying the rules correctly, or by not enforcing them? That missing clarity makes the whole picture blurry. The report should spell out whether the real issues come from how countries applied the EU rules or how they enforced them. Without this, it’s impossible to pinpoint why the framework isn’t delivering as intended. Eurobarometer data shows that countries pairing smart regulation of smokeless products with strict cigarette rules – such as Sweden, Czechia and Greece – have cut smoking far faster than the rest of the EU. Across the block, smoking still stands at 24%, down only two percentage points since the 2014 introduction of the current TPD³.

Fabio de Petris, Vice President EU External Affairs at BAT said:

“A smoke-free EU by 2040 will require smart regulation of smokeless nicotine products. Had the Commission followed the science, it would have acknowledged the extensive evidence that these products have a reduced risk profile compared with cigarettes, with millions of adult smokers switching to them.

“Rather than reducing demand, many regulations have proven unenforceable and are pushing consumers into illegal markets run by criminals, with no age checks, safety standards or tax revenues, and the Commission has failed to properly evaluate this.

“The report raises serious doubts about whether the Commission is following the evidence or is simply justifying a pre-determined agenda that will set back progress toward a smoke-free EU.”

BAT remains committed to A Better Tomorrow™ and the vision of a smokeless world. The company believes smart regulation of vapour, nicotine pouch and heated tobacco products can advance public health while maintaining government oversight of a market generating over €107 billion in annual tax revenue⁴ and supporting nearly 1.45 million jobs⁵.