What the future might look like
We expect to see more tobacco control regulation being introduced around the world. However, if the current trend for some regulation continues, such as excessive excise increases, plain packaging or ingredients bans, this may lead to a dramatic rise in the levels of illegal tobacco products. This could mean a future dominated by a black market that is untaxed and unregulated instead of a legitimate regulated industry generating significant revenue for governments.
However, we also expect to see more legislation to address this rising illegal tobacco trade, which we hope will help drive more international cooperation and stronger enforcement. This is a positive step but will only be effective if it is rigorously enforced both nationally and internationally and covers all players in the market.